- Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:31 am
Sorry, I overlooked your initial response. Many of the things you cite are a win for the right, or a fulfillment of Trump promises, but we disagree with whether they are a win for America, so I will not address those.
I already admitted to the obvious bump in the stock market, but that may not be a good thing, as I will get to. The unemployment rate has come down, but job creation has been on the same trend for four years and the decrease in the unemployment rate is also part of that trend. There is no evidence to connect any of it to Trump policies, or complete lack of legislative achievements.
But it is the case that it is too early to say what effect Trump will have on the economy. One year in office is not enough as the economy does not respond with the speed of the stock market, so it may be that Trump's deregulation will have a future effect on productivity and growth.
I believe that tax reform will put more money in the hands of people who may invest in jobs, but are just as likely to create a huge bubble in the stock market. I don't see where the demand is going to come to justify the increased investment. I beleive it was Ryan who said something about businesses increasing inventories. Why would they do that in the face of flat demand and ripped up trade agreements?
I fundamentally do not believe in supply-side economics. We are going to explode the deficit for no good reason because there is no slack in the economy and it will not respond to the tax cuts in the way predicted. In any event, let's wait for those changes in economic indicators you say are coming, because they have not happened yet.